Historical and Legal Analysis of the Cyprus Problem

The Fundamental Character of the Problem and Its International Dimensions

The Cyprus problem has been on the international agenda for more than half a century as one of the most complex geopolitical issues of the Eastern Mediterranean. The fundamental dynamics of the problem are shaped around the collapse of the bicommunal constitutional structure established in 1960 and the resulting uncertainty of status.

With the events of 1963, the constitutional order of the Republic of Cyprus became unworkable, and a de facto two administrations emerged on the island. This situation gives rise to important debates in international law on the issues of sovereignty and recognition.

Examining the Concept of Sovereignty Within the Framework of International Law

The principle of sovereignty constitutes one of the most fundamental building blocks of the modern international system. Since the Westphalian system, the principles of states’ absolute authority over their own territory and their independence in the face of external intervention have constituted the foundation of international relations.

Within the framework of the Montevideo Convention (1933), four fundamental criteria were established for the existence of a state:

  • Defined territorial boundaries
  • A permanent population
  • An effective government
  • The capacity to enter into relations with other states

These criteria are accepted as objective standards in international recognition processes.

An Analysis of Past Solution Approaches

An Assessment of the Bizonal Bicommunal Federation Model

The BBF model was for many years the principal approach proposed for the solution of the Cyprus problem. This model envisages the two communities living together on the basis of equal rights within a federal structure.

Strengths of the model:

  • Largely preserving the existing territorial status quo
  • Examples of a federal structure recognized in international law
  • Compatibility with European Union legislation

Difficulties encountered:

  • Disagreements over power-sharing issues
  • The complexity of the property rights issue
  • Differing views on the system of guarantees

An Objective Assessment of the Negotiation Processes

The Annan Plan Process (2004) was one of the most comprehensive initiatives for the solution of the Cyprus problem. The plan was rejected by referendum, but it provided important experience in terms of negotiation methodology.

The Crans Montana Negotiations (2017) went down in history as one of the most intensive diplomatic efforts of the recent period. The six-party format (the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities, Turkey, Greece, Britain and the UN) constituted an important example of multilateral diplomacy.

The Theoretical Foundations of the Two-State Solution Model

Examining the Right of Self-Determination Within the Framework of International Law

The principle of self-determination is accepted as a fundamental right recognized in the United Nations Charter and in various international conventions. This right expresses the authority of peoples to determine their own future.

Within the framework of the jurisprudence of the International Court of Justice and customary international law, various conditions have been established for the exercise of the right of self-determination:

  • A distinct ethnic/cultural identity
  • Historical continuity
  • The existence of a democratic will
  • The priority of peaceful methods

The Legal Criteria of Statehood and Examples of Their Application

There are two fundamental theories of state recognition: the Declaratory Theory and the Constitutive Theory. Modern international law generally adopts the Declaratory Theory; according to this, statehood can exist independently of recognition.

Successful examples of self-determination:

  • East Timor (1999-2002)
  • South Sudan (2011)
  • Kosovo (2008)
  • Eritrea (1993)

These examples show that the international community, under certain conditions, has accepted the formation of new states.

Current Diplomatic Developments and International Approaches

The Geneva Process and the Approach of the UN Secretary-General

The 2021 Geneva Informal Conference was an attempt at a new methodological approach to the solution of the Cyprus problem. The post-process statements of UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the need for a reassessment of traditional approaches.

Prominent elements of the conference:

  • Questioning the existing parameters
  • Openness to new approaches
  • The search for a sustainable solution
  • An emphasis on regional stability

The Approaches of Regional and Global Actors

The European Union acts within the framework of the existing acquis on the Cyprus issue, but is showing increasing flexibility regarding pragmatic solutions.

The United Nations, through its Good Offices Mission, continues its role as an impartial mediator and shows openness to innovative approaches.

The regional powers (Turkey, Greece, Britain) approach the issue within the framework of geopolitical balances and energy policies.

The Organization of Turkic States and Multilateral Diplomacy

Representation and Participation in International Organizations

Membership of the Organization of Turkic States has been an important development for the TRNC in the field of multilateral diplomacy. This membership was achieved by unanimity and was included in the organization’s official documents.

The diplomatic effects of the membership:

  • An increase in international visibility
  • Representation on multilateral platforms
  • Opportunities for cultural and economic cooperation
  • A strengthening of diaspora relations

Bilateral Relations and Diplomatic Contacts

The official contacts made with Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan demonstrate the TRNC’s capacity for bilateral diplomacy. These developments constitute practical examples of the step-by-step approach.

An analysis of the network of representations:

  • Representation in 20 countries
  • Diplomatic relations at various levels
  • Cooperation focused on trade and culture
  • Civil society connections

Areas of Pragmatic Cooperation and Confidence-Building Measures

Models of Sectoral Cooperation

The functional cooperation approach envisages practical cooperation in areas of common interest, independently of a political solution.

Priority areas of cooperation:

Energy and Infrastructure

  • The development of hydrocarbon resources
  • Electricity interconnection projects
  • The transition to renewable energy
  • Energy security cooperation

Environment and Sustainability

  • The effective use of water resources
  • Environmental protection programs
  • Adaptation to climate change
  • The development of sustainable tourism

Security and Humanitarian Issues

  • Combating illegal migration
  • Landmine clearance
  • Search-and-rescue operations
  • Cooperation on health emergencies

Confidence-Building Measures and Social Peace

The approaches of civil society diplomacy and track-two diplomacy play roles supportive of the official negotiations.

Effective confidence-building measures:

  • Academic exchange programs
  • The organization of cultural events
  • Joint research projects
  • Youth diplomacy initiatives

Examples of the Two-State Solution in International Law

Successful Cases of Separation and Recognition

Customary international law regards peaceful separation processes as legitimate under certain conditions.

The Czechoslovakia Example (1993)

The process known as the Velvet Divorce constitutes an important precedent for peaceful separation on the basis of mutual consent.

Prominent features of the process:

  • A process of democratic negotiation
  • The fair sharing of economic assets
  • The protection of citizenship rights
  • The transfer of international obligations

The Sudan-South Sudan Model (2011)

The process that took place within the framework of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement constitutes an example of self-determination through a referendum.

Interstate Relations and the Methodology of Diplomacy

The principle of good neighbor relations is of critical importance for sustainable peace in two-state structures.

Elements of a successful model:

  • Mutual recognition and respect
  • Border security cooperation
  • Developing commercial relations
  • Cultural exchange programs

Content Development and Capacity Building

Institutional Capacity and Governance

Building institutional capacity within the framework of good governance principles is an important factor for international legitimacy.

Priority areas:

  • Strengthening the legal infrastructure
  • Transparency and accountability
  • Human rights protection mechanisms
  • Economic governance standards

Education and Human Resources Development

Human capital development is of critical importance for long-term sustainability.

Strategic objectives:

  • Improving the quality of higher education
  • Research and development capacity
  • Vocational training programs
  • Language and culture studies

The Economic Dimension and Sustainable Development

Economic Integration and Trade Relations

Within the framework of the theory of economic interdependence, commercial relations are regarded as an important factor for political stability.

Potential areas of cooperation:

  • The development of the tourism sector
  • Agriculture and food cooperation
  • Technology and innovation transfer
  • The integration of financial services

The Investment Climate and International Standards

Improvements in international investment standards and the business environment are of critical importance in terms of economic growth and employment creation.

Areas of reform:

  • Increasing legal certainty
  • Reducing bureaucracy
  • Developing the technological infrastructure
  • Environmental and social standards

Media and Communication Strategies

Public Diplomacy and International Image

Strategic communication approaches have an important role in shaping international public opinion.

Effective communication channels:

  • Academic and think tank collaborations
  • Media and social media strategies
  • Cultural diplomacy programs
  • Diaspora mobilization

Digital Diplomacy and the Use of Technology

Within the framework of the concept of digital age diplomacy, technological tools are being used to increase diplomatic effectiveness.

Innovative approaches:

  • Virtual conferences and webinars
  • Social media diplomacy
  • Digital culture platforms
  • Online education programs

Future Scenarios and Strategic Planning

Probability Analysis and Risk Assessment

Using the methodology of scenario planning, it is of critical importance to make strategic preparations for different future scenarios.

Basic scenarios:

  • The continuation of the existing status quo
  • A process of gradual normalization
  • Comprehensive solution negotiations
  • Dynamics of regional change

Adaptive Strategy and Flexibility

The adaptive strategy approach envisages the development of the capacity to adapt to changing conditions.

Elements of strategic flexibility:

  • Developing multi-option policies
  • Early warning systems
  • Rapid decision-making mechanisms
  • Stakeholder coordination

Conclusion and Assessment

The Two-State Solution Model is regarded as an alternative approach to the solution of the Cyprus problem. This model rests on legitimate foundations within the framework of international law and offers advantages in terms of practical applicability.

Strengths of the model:

  • Legal legitimacy based on the right of self-determination
  • Opportunities for pragmatic cooperation
  • A contribution to regional stability
  • The potential for sustainable peace

Difficulties that may be encountered:

  • The process of international recognition
  • The management of the transition period
  • The need for technical arrangements
  • Changes in regional dynamics

A two-state structure, if a model of cooperation is developed on the basis of the principles of mutual respect and equal sovereignty, can make important contributions to stability and prosperity in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Strategic priorities for the period ahead:

  • Increasing international legitimacy
  • Ensuring economic sustainability
  • Strengthening social reconciliation
  • Participation in regional integration processes

In this process, the importance of the approaches of scientific research, objective analysis and constructive dialogue stands out as a critical factor in the search for a sustainable solution.

Acknowledgments

In preparing this academic study, use was made of the original presentation by Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Işıksal titled “The Foundations of the Two-State Solution Model.” The in-depth analysis and assessments of Prof. Dr. Işıksal on the subject, in his capacity as Special Advisor on Diplomacy and International Relations to the Presidency of the TRNC and as a Member of the Negotiating Team, formed the basis of this study.

I would also like to express my thanks to my colleagues in the Diplomacy and International Relations unit of the Presidency of the TRNC, to the expert academics in the field of international law, and to the research team of the Organization of Turkic States. I express my gratitude to all the researchers and diplomatic personnel who contribute to the academic work conducted on the Cyprus issue.

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Işıksal, Hüseyin. (2023). The Cyprus Problem and the Principle of Sovereign Equality. Presidency of the TRNC Publications.

Işıksal, Hüseyin. (2022). The Organization of Turkic States and the TRNC: A Multilateral Diplomacy Perspective. Journal of International Relations.

Işıksal, Hüseyin. (2021). The Geneva Process and New Approaches. Center for Diplomacy and Strategy Studies.

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This analysis, on the basis of Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Işıksal’s presentation titled “The Foundations of the Two-State Solution Model,” aims to present an objective assessment grounded in academic research standards and the international law literature. The experience and expertise that Prof. Dr. Işıksal possesses in his capacity as Special Advisor on Diplomacy and International Relations to the President of the TRNC and as a Member of the Negotiating Team constitute the fundamental basis of this study. The author’s views are expressed within the framework of academic freedom and do not reflect the official position of any institution.